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04/23
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Where are we now that cases have dropped?
The local South Bay beach cities jointly hit their lowest point in terms of fewest new confirmed cases in the week ending October 18. From El Segundo to Torrance, there were just 35 cases; only seven cases in Manhattan Beach, as many as Torrance which had 48 the prior week. The next week, Manhattan Beach…
Are forecast models remotely accurate?
On Thanksgiving Day, November 26th, we posted the chart above which shows a timeline of the number of COVID-19 patients in the Los Angeles County hospitals each day along with the estimates and forecasts of the same from selected (mostly academic) institutions. The dashed green curve is the ensemble forecast which aggregates together all of…
Isn’t the flu more deadly than COVID-19?
One fallacy that i often see put out on social media is that the common, regular seasonal flu that comes around again each year is responsible for taking many more lives than has COVID-19. The supposition is that (dummy or sinister, your pick) government leaders are needlessly insisting everyone takes extraordinary (economy and small business…
subliminal machines 