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Situation Summary

Please note the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health will be updating their data processing systems beginning Friday, July 3rd, so there will not be any updated data reported by them this weekend. While we will not be able to update the data in our existing charts, we will be rolling out new charts this weekend so please don’t wait until Monday to see what is new. Please mask up!

South Bay Los Angeles – Thursday, July 2nd

Today, the local beach cities from El Segundo to Torrance together added twelve new confirmed cases to their total of ninety-five since Monday. This is already over 67% of last week’s record high total of 141 confirmed cases and more than the 71 cases from either of the two weeks before that.

Torrance was at the forefront among these beach cities again with another five new confirmed cases today. Their total for the week thus far is forty-four which is already 69.8% of last week’s record high total of 63 cases and more than any of the first three weeks of June. Redondo Beach had just two new confirmed cases today, twenty-two for the week – already more than 81% of last week’s total of twenty-seven cases.

Manhattan Beach had three new confirmed cases today. They are sixteen for the week, already more than 61% of last week’s record high total of twenty-six and more than any other week back to the week ending April 5th when there were nineteen cases. Hermosa Beach had two new confirmed cases today, for a total of seven for the week. El Segundo had the day off with no new cases.

El Segundo handily has the fewest confirmed cases among these South Bay beach cities with only fifty-seven cases. Hermosa Beach is a distant second with seventy-seven cases. With its much larger population, Redondo Beach retains the title of the lowest case rate at 315.9 per 100,000 people. El Segundo has the next lowest case rate at 339.6 per 100,000 people while the remaining three cities are distant runners-up. Torrance continues to have the most confirmed cases (now 594, more than two and a half times the city with the next highest count, Redondo Beach at 217). Torrance also has the highest case rate of these beach cities at 397.9 per 100,000 people.

Out of 11,238 residents of Torrance who have been tested to date, 491 persons or 4.3% tested positive. Its population has now been tested to a rate of 7,529 per 100,000 people and their positive rate is 329 per 100,000 people. The percentage of Hermosa Beach’s 1978 tested residents (approximately ten percent of its population) who tested positive is 3.3%. Its much smaller population than Torrance bumps up their positive rate an edge higher at 330 per 100,000 people. The remaining local beach cities have lower positive test rates ranging from 303 per 100,000 people (Manhattan Beach) down to 268 per 100,000 people and 266 per 100,000 people (Redondo Beach and El Segundo, respectively).

Thus far this week, Torrance and Redondo Beach each have had one new death. None of the other local South Bay beach cities had any new deaths last week. Torrance had six new deaths last month and now a cumulative total of 52 deaths raising their mortality rate to 34.8 per 100,000 people. Redondo Beach has a cumulative total of nine fatalities and a mortality rate of 13.1 per 100,000 people placing them second behind Torrance among these South Bay beach cities in terms of both count and rate. El Segundo still has not had a single mortality.

Chart of New Confirmed Cases for the beach cities from El Segundo to Torrance (as well as the totals for these cities combined). Each group shows today’s increase (if any, blue column), the cumulative sum for this week (light brown column) and prior weeks’ totals (green columns).

The current overall situation in the beach cities of South Bay Los Angeles range from roughly stable (Hermosa Beach, El Segundo and Manhattan Beach) to slightly less so (Redondo Beach) to concerning (Torrance). New confirmed cases in Los Angeles County are continuing to increase at a much higher rate than these cities. Testing has signicantly increased but this is not the primary cause of the recent rise in new confirmed cases. All of the South Bay beach cities have now surpassed having seven percent of their population tested. Only the two most populous among these cities, Torrance and Redondo Beach, have yet to have their testing surpass nine percent of their population.

New! Chart of weekly New Confirmed Cases and Tests for the beach cities from El Segundo to Torrance (as well as the totals for these cities combined). Each grouping pairs each week’s cases (red columns) next to that week’s tests (blue columns).

Most of the beach cities considered here had done well at keeping the spread down. By mid-May, the local picture was looking quite idyllic and the situation seemed well in hand. Unfortunately, it hasn’t stayed the same way in June and we are now seeing increasing cases from “more community transmission” in the words of the county Director of Public Health.

Chart of Confirmed Cases (cumulative) for El Segundo, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach and Torrance (solid lines in colour, right scale), as well as all of L.A. County (dashed grey line, left scale). Read more…

The above graph charts the cumulative increase in confirmed cases for several of the local cities over the past several weeks. None of these cities can be considered to be flat over the second half of June. El Segundo remains the least affected by the recent increases in cases but it also has the lowest population. Hermosa Beach also has a small population which makes its recent increase in confirmed cases more notable. The major outlier shown here is Torrance which looked like it might be leveling off briefly but has resumed rising sharply again. For very rough comparison, you can see the steadily increasing trajectory of confirmed cases for all of Los Angeles County as shown by the dashed grey line (scaled differently with the left vertical axis instead of the right).

Chart of new Confirmed Cases, for El Segundo, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach and Torrance (solid lines in colour, right scale) and all Los Angeles County (dashed grey line, left scale). Read more…

This rather chaotic graph charts the daily ups and downs in new confirmed cases for several of the local cities over the past several weeks. Hermosa Beach and El Segundo are both effectively maintaining the fewest confirmed cases amonst the cities charted here going multiple days without any new cases and usually limiting to just one or two cases otherwise. Manhattan Beach and Redondo Beach have slightly more (and occasionally larger) increases. Torrance is again, the major outlier shown here having experienced several (or more) new cases most days. All this volatility is charted by the jagged peaks of the red line and smoothed out by the seven day moving average trend (red dotted) line. Again, for very rough comparison, the dashed grey line shows the daily changes in daily confirmed for all of Los Angeles County (scaled with the left vertical axis again) and the dotted red line indicates its seven day moving average trend line.

Chart of Confirmed Cases for El Segundo, Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach and Torrance (solid lines in colour, right scale) expressed per 100,000 people to account for different population sizes.

Since these cities have much different population sizes, this graph takes the cumulative confirmed cases for each city (shown here as dashed lines, from prior chart) and then factors into account the population size of each city for a normalized view (solid lines) expressed as confirmed case rates per 100,000 people. As an example, Manhattan Beach currently has a lower actual count of confirmed cases than either Redondo Beach or Torrance, but it also has a much smaller population. Factoring each city’s population into account, Manhattan Beach actually has a higher rate of confirmed cases per 100,000 people than Redondo Beach (as it did for Torrance, too before it started adding lots of confirmed cases several weeks back). These normalized rates make it easier to make purposeful relative comparisons between cities of different population sizes. Torrance now has both the most confirmed cases (actual count) and the highest rate per 100,000 people among the cities charted here.


Please note: the four pairs of bubble charts below reflect the data as posted Friday afternoon. The county public health department has not updated the numbers underlying these charts since.

Charts of Confirmed Cases in local South Bay cities. The chart on the left shows the counts per city, proportionally scaling the area of the circles. The chart on the right shows the same but normalized with each city’s population and expressed as a rate per 100,000 people.

In this pair of graphs, we take a snapshot of the current confirmed cases for the cities from the previous chart (both by count and rate per 100,000 people) and move them onto a map of the South Bay area (along with the numbers for adjacent and adjoining cities). In these bubble charts, the area of the circles are proportional to the numbers represented for the purpose of convenient visual comparison.

Charts of Deaths in local South Bay Los Angeles cities. The chart on the left shows the count per city, proportionally scaling the area of the circles. The chart on the right shows the same but normalized with each city’s population and expressed as a rate per 100,000 people.

A similar pair of bubble charts as before but showing Deaths per local city by count and rate per 100,000 people.

Charts of Testing in local South Bay Los Angeles cities. The chart on the left shows the count per city, proportionally scaling the area of the circles. The chart on the right shows the same but normalized with each city’s population and expressed as a rate per 100,000 people.

This pair of bubble charts breaks out Testing, both actual counts and rates per 100,000 people, per local city. These charts show that the recent significant increase in testing reported for Los Angeles County has indeed reached down to the local cities. All cities shown here now have test rates above 6,000 per 100,000 people (the equivalent of six percent of their population). Some cities are now well above this level.

Charts of Confirmed Cases (left) and Testing (right) in the local South Bay cities over the previous seven days. The charts proportionally scale the area of the circles to each cities’ seven day counts of cases and tests.

Lastly, the left chart of this pair shows the count of positive confirmed cases per city over the previous seven days. The right chart does the same per city but for Testing, instead.

There is a separate Situation Summary for Los Angeles County covering the county as a whole.


see more…

See charts for Los Angeles County showing Testing, Confirmed Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths for the county as a whole.

More charts showing demographics distributions by Age Group, Underlying Conditions, Ethnicity, Income and Gender for Los Angeles County as a whole.

How is Los Angeles County doing relative to New York City? See the comparison charts between Los Angeles County and New York City.


Thanks for looking.
Check back tomorrow
for the latest updates.

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2 thoughts on “Situation Summary

    1. hello Jeanne, thanks for having a look at the data and charts here and leaving a comment. all the numbers charted here of tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are for COVID-19 so there wouldn’t be any corollary data for previous years. we are looking at CDC published numbers for influenza and pneumonia deaths from previous years for comparison and hope to develop some charts of these so please check back.

      Like

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